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Retirement runway

Slide the retirement age. Green means the plan clears your target confidence.

Working it out

Retire at55

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Corpus by age

The shaded band holds the middle 80% of simulated outcomes for the corpus alone. The diamond marks what you need on the day you retire.

Confidence by retirement age

Same investment, spending and safety net, different retirement ages.

Chance the money is still there

Share of simulated markets with money left at each age.

How this is calculated

Investments go in at the start of each month and stop on the day you retire. The optional step-up raises the monthly amount once a year.
Spending in retirement starts at today's expenses times your spend ratio, rises with inflation every year, and is withdrawn monthly at the start of the month. Other income, if any, reduces the withdrawal.
Steady returns means every year earns exactly the rate you entered. Needed corpus is the amount that a steady-return path spends down to zero at your plan-until age.
Confidence comes from 4,000 simulated return paths. Each year's return is random (lognormal) with your compound return as its median and your volatility as its spread. The seed is fixed, so results are repeatable. A path fails if the money runs out before your plan-until age.
Safety net: usable value is value × (1 − haircut) × share you would sell, summed over property and gold. If the corpus runs out, it is sold once and the proceeds keep funding withdrawals. Effective confidence = share of paths that never sell + the weight you set × share saved by selling. Each asset grows with inflation plus the real growth you enter (0% by default), with no price swings and no delay in selling, and any rent it earns is not modelled separately, so treat it as optimistic.
A plan that is exactly 100% funded on steady returns usually has a confidence far below a comfortable target, which is why the two numbers are shown separately.
Not modelled: taxes on withdrawals, inflation swings, one-off costs such as medical events, and changes in asset mix. Enter returns after tax and fund costs. This is a planning aid, not financial advice.